MID-TEXAS COAST | WEATHER | November 14, 2026
Quick Take
- Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected across Southeast Texas on Sunday, with the heaviest totals likely near the coast.
- Most areas could get 1 to 3 inches, but a few coastal spots between Port O’Connor and Lake Jackson could see more than 4 inches.
- A cold front will move through late Sunday night, bringing gusty winds, rough seas and cooler air on Monday.
What’s happening?
An upper-level storm system moving into Texas will pull deep Gulf moisture onshore, while a surface low develops just off the coast. Together, they will set off widespread showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston says the risk of excessive rainfall is increasing. The Weather Prediction Center has all of Southeast Texas under a Marginal Risk, Level 1 of 4, for flash flooding. Forecasters say it could be upgraded if models agree the heaviest rain will fall over land instead of offshore.
Where and when?
Onshore winds of 15 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph, will start pushing in warm, moist air Saturday night. Storms will become widespread on Sunday, November 15, 2026.
The heaviest rain is expected from late morning into the afternoon. During that time, rainfall rates could top 2 to 3 inches per hour, mainly south of Interstate 10 and along the coast.
The coastline from Port O’Connor and Palacios through Matagorda, Bay City and Lake Jackson sits in the zone some models show getting the most rain. Totals there could be several inches in a short time if storms keep forming over the same area.
Who feels it most?
Low-lying coastal neighborhoods and roads that drain poorly are the most likely to flood. Coastal Matagorda County is especially exposed, since quick downpours can overwhelm ditches and streets there.
The Storm Prediction Center has also placed areas near and south of I-10 under a Marginal Risk, Level 1 of 5, for severe weather. Damaging winds and hail are the main threats from the strongest storms. Boaters and anglers on Matagorda Bay and the nearby Gulf waters should expect rough conditions.
What should you do?
Never drive through flooded roads. Just a foot of moving water can sweep a vehicle away, and floodwater often hides washed-out pavement. Plan any Sunday travel before the late-morning storms if you can, and have a way to get weather alerts on your phone.
Clear storm drains and gutters near your home on Saturday. Secure loose outdoor items before the wind picks up, and bring boats in or tie them down well. If you live near a creek or bayou, keep an eye on water levels during heavy rain.
What comes next?
The cold front is expected to push offshore late Sunday night into early Monday. Gusty northeast winds will follow. Galveston Island could see gusts of 30 to 35 mph, with the strongest winds and highest seas Sunday night into Monday.
Monday will be noticeably cooler, with highs in the low 60s in Houston and a lingering chance of showers. Temperatures should climb back toward 70 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday.
By the Numbers
| Detail | Figure |
|---|---|
| Flash flood risk | Level 1 of 4 |
| Most areas | 1 to 3 inches |
| Peak rain rates | 2 to 3+ inches per hour |
| Coastal wind gusts | Up to 35 mph |
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